Hazards
Earthquakes and the SoCal trades
How often the ground shakes in Southern California, what the USGS ShakeOut M7.8 scenario says a big one would do, and how that compares with the number of trade businesses here today.
47
earthquakes of M4 or more in and around Southern California since Oct 1, 2021
9 were in the Inland Empire; the largest there was M4.9, 20 km NNE of Indio, CA, on Jan 20, 2026. USGS data through Oct 1, 2026.
How often the ground shakes
Observed
In a typical year, the Inland Empire has about 31 M3+ quakes. 2019 had 586, the year of the Ridgecrest quakes.
Earthquakes of M3 or more per year, Inland Empire, 2000–2026
Area
Size
Earthquakes per year
Counted by where the quake started (the epicenter). “All of SoCal” is the USGS search box, which also takes in Kern, Imperial, offshore and northern Baja California. * 2026 runs only to Oct 1, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Year | Area | Earthquakes | Partial year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Inland Empire | 70 | |
| 2001 | Inland Empire | 58 | |
| 2002 | Inland Empire | 30 | |
| 2003 | Inland Empire | 49 | |
| 2004 | Inland Empire | 27 | |
| 2005 | Inland Empire | 37 | |
| 2006 | Inland Empire | 31 | |
| 2007 | Inland Empire | 25 | |
| 2008 | Inland Empire | 37 | |
| 2009 | Inland Empire | 22 | |
| 2010 | Inland Empire | 32 | |
| 2011 | Inland Empire | 25 | |
| 2012 | Inland Empire | 29 | |
| 2013 | Inland Empire | 27 | |
| 2014 | Inland Empire | 34 | |
| 2015 | Inland Empire | 25 | |
| 2016 | Inland Empire | 33 | |
| 2017 | Inland Empire | 26 | |
| 2018 | Inland Empire | 48 | |
| 2019 | Inland Empire | 586 | |
| 2020 | Inland Empire | 69 | |
| 2021 | Inland Empire | 37 | |
| 2022 | Inland Empire | 27 | |
| 2023 | Inland Empire | 22 | |
| 2024 | Inland Empire | 25 | |
| 2025 | Inland Empire | 31 | |
| 2026 | Inland Empire | 41 | Yes |
Observed
47 quakes of M4 or more hit in or near Southern California in the last five years, 9 of them in the Inland Empire. The largest was M5.2, 24 km SW of Lamont, CA, on Aug 7, 2024.
Epicenters of M4+ earthquakes, Oct 1, 2021 to Oct 1, 2026
- M4.0 to 4.4
- M4.5 to 4.9
- M5 and up
Shaded: Riverside and San Bernardino. Dots outside the outlines are in Kern, Imperial, offshore or Baja California. Most M4 quakes do little or no damage.
Show the numbers
| Date (UTC) | Magnitude | Location | County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4.3 | 18 km WSW of Johannesburg, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Jul 12, 2026 | 4.1 | 2 km ESE of Frazier Park, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.1 | 18 km WSW of Johannesburg, CA | Outside the six counties |
| May 10, 2026 | 4.7 | 3 km WSW of Brawley, CA | Outside the six counties |
| May 10, 2026 | 4.5 | 2 km W of Brawley, CA | Outside the six counties |
| May 10, 2026 | 4.4 | 3 km WSW of Brawley, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 4.1 | 26 km WNW of Ludlow, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 4.3 | 20 km NNE of Indio, CA | Riverside |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 4.9 | 20 km NNE of Indio, CA | Riverside |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 4.1 | 7 km WSW of Holtville, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 4.4 | 6 km NW of Rialto, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jul 11, 2025 | 4.3 | 12 km WNW of Calipatria, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 14, 2025 | 5.2 | 5 km S of Julian, CA | San Diego |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 4.1 | 10 km NW of Malibu, CA | Los Angeles |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 4.7 | 6 km N of Malibu, CA | Los Angeles |
| Aug 12, 2024 | 4.4 | 4 km SSE of Highland Park, CA | Los Angeles |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 4.4 | 22 km NW of Grapevine, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 4.1 | 22 km SW of Lamont, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 4.6 | 25 km SW of Lamont, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 5.2 | 24 km SW of Lamont, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Jul 29, 2024 | 4.9 | 22 km ENE of Barstow, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 4.1 | 24 km SW of Lamont, CA | Outside the six counties |
| May 20, 2024 | 4.0 | 17 km SE of Ocotillo Wells, CA | Outside the six counties |
| May 1, 2024 | 4.1 | 10 km SW of Corona, CA | Orange |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 4.3 | 11 km S of Bodfish, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 4.0 | 10 km N of Westmorland, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 4.6 | 2 km NNW of El Centro, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 4.0 | 4 km SSW of Imperial, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 4.8 | 3 km NNW of El Centro, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 4.6 | 11 km WNW of Malibu, CA | Los Angeles |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 4.2 | 3 km SW of San Bernardino, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 4.2 | 1 km W of Lytle Creek, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 4.1 | 18 km S of Rancho Palos Verdes, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 4.8 | 11 km E of Ocotillo, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 4.0 | 7 km ESE of Ojai, CA | Ventura |
| Aug 20, 2023 | 5.1 | 7 km SE of Ojai, CA | Ventura |
| Aug 2, 2023 | 4.1 | 8 km SW of Niland, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 30, 2023 | 4.3 | 7km WSW of Niland, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 30, 2023 | 4.3 | 9 km SW of Niland, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 30, 2023 | 4.3 | 8km WSW of Niland, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 29, 2023 | 4.1 | 3 km SSW of Heber, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 4.2 | 5km NW of Palomar Observatory, CA | San Diego |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 4.2 | 16km S of Malibu Beach, CA | Outside the six counties |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 4.1 | 16 km N of Borrego Springs, CA | San Diego |
| Jul 15, 2022 | 4.6 | 13km NE of Ridgecrest, CA | San Bernardino |
| May 26, 2022 | 4.3 | 18km S of Trona, CA | San Bernardino |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 4.0 | 5km WSW of Palomar Observatory, CA | San Diego |
If the big one hits: the ShakeOut scenario
Deaths
About 1,800
About half from fires after the quake
ScenarioInjured, needing the ER
About 50,000
ScenarioFires started
1,600
1,200 too big for one fire engine
ScenarioTotal losses (2008 dollars)
$213.3B
ScenarioHouseholds displaced
255,251
Eight counties, including 30,000 evacuated below dams
ScenarioOld brick buildings beyond repair
About 900
Unreinforced masonry
ScenarioBuilding floor burnt
200 million sq ft
ScenarioScenario (what-if, not a forecast)
Shaking damage and fire displace 63,940 households in the Inland Empire in the scenario, 28% of the region's total. San Bernardino County has the second most of any county.
ShakeOut scenario: households displaced by shaking damage or fire, by county
Table 6-8 of the report. Its "total displaced households" also counts 30,000 households in San Bernardino County evacuated below dams; their homes are not damaged, so they are left out here. The study area is eight counties, so Imperial and Kern are included.
Show the numbers
| County | Shaking damage | Fire | Shaking + fire (charted) | Dam evacuations (not charted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial | 22 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| Kern | 30 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| Los Angeles | 27,339 | 94,000 | 121,339 | 0 |
| Orange | 2,917 | 37,000 | 39,917 | 0 |
| Riverside | 18,893 | 1,000 | 19,893 | 0 |
| San Bernardino | 43,047 | 1,000 | 44,047 | 30,000 |
| San Diego | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventura | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Scenario (what-if, not a forecast)
In the scenario, lost business is the biggest single cost ($96.2 billion), more than shaking damage to buildings ($32.7 billion).
ShakeOut scenario: biggest cost items, billions of 2008 dollars
Selected items from the report's loss table. The report's total for all items is $213.3B. Not adjusted for inflation.
Show the numbers
| Cost item | Billions (2008 $) | Report page |
|---|---|---|
| Business interruption | $96.2B | 11 |
| Fire damage to buildings | $40.0B | 11 |
| Building damage (shaking) | $32.7B | 11 |
| Fire damage to contents | $25.0B | 11 |
| High-rise building damage | $2.2B | 11 |
| Pipeline (water, sewer, gas) damage | $1.1B | 11 |
What that would mean for the trades
Nobody can say how many jobs a big quake would create. But we can line up two numbers: the households the scenario puts out of their homes, and the trade businesses that exist here today. The ratio is a rough sense of scale. It is not a prediction.
Scenario (what-if, not a forecast)
Illustration: the scenario's 63,940 households displaced by shaking or fire in the Inland Empire come to about 48 for every electrical contractor business there today.
Illustrative: scenario displaced households per trade business in the Inland Empire (Q1 2026 counts)
Area
Count
Displaced households per business
A ratio, not a forecast: a 2008 what-if divided by today's count of employers. It uses households displaced by shaking damage or fire, not those evacuated below dams. Not every household needs every trade, and crews can travel from other counties. Remediation is left out because its county counts are small.
Show the numbers
| Trade | Households displaced by shaking or fire (scenario) | Businesses, Q1 2026 | Households per business |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical | 63,940 | 1,344 | 48 |
| Plumbing & HVAC | 63,940 | 1,674 | 38 |
| Drywall & insulation | 63,940 | 351 | 182 |
| Painting | 63,940 | 543 | 118 |
| Roofing | 63,940 | 441 | 145 |
| Residential building | 63,940 | 2,421 | 26 |
What this does and doesn't tell you
- It does show how often quakes are recorded here, by year and size, straight from the USGS catalog.
- It does quote the ShakeOut report's own figures, with page numbers. We did not change or re-run them.
- It doesn't predict when or where the next big quake hits. Quake counts are not damage counts.
- It doesn't say how much work a quake would bring any one business. The trade ratio is an illustration only.
- Trade counts are employers only (BLS QCEW, Q1 2026). Sole owners with no staff are not counted. A business is counted where its office is, not where it works.
- The scenario is from 2008. Homes, people and prices have changed since then.
About this data
- Southern California earthquakes M3+ since 2000 Observed
U.S. Geological Survey, ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) (earthquakes in a box around the six counties)
Covers through Oct 1, 2026. Retrieved .
Notes (5)
- Every earthquake of magnitude 3.0 or more since 2000.
- Earthquakes are placed in the county that contains the epicenter. The search area also takes in parts of Kern, Imperial, Santa Barbara and Inyo counties, offshore waters and northern Baja California; those count only in regional totals.
- Magnitudes are as reported by USGS and can be revised.
- The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes (M6.4 and M7.1, on the Kern / San Bernardino county line) set off thousands of aftershocks, most of them counted in San Bernardino County.
- Counts describe how many earthquakes were recorded, not damage. Most M3 earthquakes cause no damage.
- Southern California earthquakes per year by magnitude Observed
U.S. Geological Survey, ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) (earthquakes in a box around the six counties)
Covers through Oct 1, 2026. Retrieved .
Notes (1)
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more per calendar year, by county and magnitude. The current year is partial (through 2026-10-01).
- ShakeOut scenario: a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in Southern California Scenario
Jones, L.M., et al., 2008, The ShakeOut Scenario: USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25 (released May 22, 2008)
Covers through May 22, 2008. Retrieved .
Notes (5)
- A scenario, not a forecast and not observed data: a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, built by USGS, the California Geological Survey and more than 300 experts for the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut drill. The report says this earthquake may never happen exactly like this.
- The study region is eight counties: the six on this site plus Imperial and Kern.
- Dollar figures are billions of 2008 dollars, not adjusted for inflation. Buildings and population are as of about 2008.
- Displaced households by county (Table 6-8) add three causes: homes damaged by shaking, homes lost to fire, and 30,000 San Bernardino County households evacuated below dams.
- Fire figures assume dry, breezy November weather without Santa Ana winds; the report gives fire building losses as $40-100 billion and uses the $40 billion minimum in the total.
- Restoration trades by county: establishments, jobs and wages Observed
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (county files, private employers; industry codes electricians 23821, plumbing & hvac 23822, drywall & insulation 23831, painters 23832, roofers 23816, remediation & abatement 562910, residential builders 2361)
Covers through Q1 2026. Retrieved .
Notes (7)
- Private-sector employers only. Counts are by where the business is located, not where the work is done.
- Jobs are the average of the quarter's three monthly payroll counts. Self-employed workers and owners without employees are not counted.
- Average weekly wage is total quarterly pay divided by 13 weeks and by average jobs, in current dollars (not adjusted for inflation).
- BLS publishes county trade data at the 5-digit industry level (4-digit for residential building); remediation is the one 6-digit industry it publishes by county.
- BLS revises the most recent quarters; this data is rebuilt from the latest release.
- There is no industry code for fire, water and mold restoration contractors: they are counted among remodelers, other specialty trades, building services and remediation. These counts describe the trades restoration work depends on, not restoration firms themselves.
- BLS withholds jobs and wages to protect employer confidentiality for Riverside remediation & abatement in 2019Q1–2020Q2 and 2020Q4; the establishment count is still shown.